Free Online Poker Guide To How And When To Gamble In Poker Tournaments
Gambling (playing risky hands in important situations) in poker tournaments is generally a bad idea but there are times when you might want to and in this free online poker guide you'll learn when and how. The question of when to gamble is easy to answer. The answer is when is it time to knock out players - lets learn by example.
This hand was shown on the Flop. (Pot 980k)
FLOP: 5c-8d-10s
A has J-10, moves all-in 1.235m (Pot 2.215m)
B has J-9, to call 1.235m
A is short stacked but has a top pair and might double up. B is on a straight draw. It doesn't matter whether A has a Set, an overpair or just a pair, say, top pair (like A's J-10) or even just an Eight. B has a great chance to win if he gets the Straight, and if A does not have a Set, which A does not have at this stage that could be turned into a Full House; for this A needs running cards but is only getting 1.79-to-1 on a call, which is too little.
Fair odds are going to be 2.33-to-1, which signifies that B's probability of winning is merely 30% (other outs may be folded already by other players). If B knew that A had top pair, should he call? (Obviously, A may be bluffing, but even if A had A-K, B will still be an underdog.)
Pot odds may offer information, but will it offer enough resolution for B to make the challenging call? Suppose, now, we add that (a) B is below the chip average in the tournament and (b) this call is for 1/3 of B's stack. We might also want to suppose that this is actually the best hand that B has obtained after a lot of hands, and B is blinding out dangerously. Can this stiffen B's resolve to make the call? In tournaments, an intricate balance between survival and accumulating chips is paramount.
B can survive by folding, but he may pass up the opportunities that a bigger stack could have. Bigger stacks can call shorter stacks who move all-in. Bigger stacks can steal blinds more frequently. He can also move above chip average. But if B misses his draw, he will be awfully short-stacked and will be more easily called if he decides to move all-in with hazardous hands, like A-J which is an underdog against a better Ace or a pocket pair.
The question, now, is this: Does B consider the difference between 1.79-to-1 and 2.33-to-1 a worthwile price to pay to be able to obtain some of the potential opportnities a big stack can have? Over a pot of 2,215,000, if B needs 1,235,000 to call he gets 1.79-to-1. However for B to call with fair odds on a pot of 2,215,000, he is supposed to put only 30% of 2,215,000, which is 664,500.
There is a difference of 570,500 chips. We could transform the real scenario to a mathematically equivalent question: Would B be willing to forgo an additional 570,500, theoretically, in order to enjoy the privileges of a big stack, as well as to avoid the risks of a short-stack? Even in free poker games this would be a hard decision, with money on the table even more so.
With the problem mathematically remodeled, the answer now depends on B's character. Is he conservative generally? Then he can fold and wait for better hands. He might not be able to psychologically recover if he loses the hand, and might play less attentively later. But it turns out that B is a willing gambler, therefore:
B calls 1.235m (Pot 3.45m)
And he does make the call! Not a favorite, but this is also an opportunity to knock out a good player.
TURN: 5c-8d-10s-2d
But, not quite yet. B has one more opportunity to try to knock out A.
RIVER: 5c-8d-10s-2d-7h
He gets it! The gamble has worked. But big decisions like this must only be made after major consideration of consequences. If B had a stack above chip average, he should fold as he may lose chips on bad odds and could turn a good stack into a weak one.
However, if B's stack was even bigger, close to or even chip leader then a call might be the move to make as loss will only be a minor chip loss. Yet if B's stack is equal or less than A then he can't call if he knows A has top pair as he will likely get pushed all-in, and if that happens then there is a great danger of the opponent having a monster hand waiting to kill you off. But in this example B made the consideration and based on what he knew made the call and was correct, and like B even if you only play free poker be careful and think before you make gambling moves.
